Setting the Stage for Q1

Understanding Timing, Cash Flow, Consumer Psychology & Buy Now Pay Later Trends

by Nick DiMatteo, Pinnacle Entertainment Group

Q1can feel mysterious. It’s the quarter where operators can feel totally opposite forces at the same time.

On one hand, guests may walk in with a little financial hangover from the holidays. On the other, the calendar quietly starts loading your building with reasons to celebrate again. If you plan for the timing of cash flow, the psychology of deal season and the reality that more households are working extra hours, Q1 can be less of a mystery and more of an opportunity.

Tax Refund Timing & Its Impact on Spending

Tax refunds are among the most reliable sources of cash for household budgets each year. The IRS reports that most electronic tax refunds with direct deposit are issued within three weeks. Larger refunds involving the Earned Income Tax Credit or Additional Child Tax Credit cannot be issued before mid-February under federal law. Many of those refunds are processed in late February and early March when direct deposit is used.

JPMorgan Chase finds clear spending spikes in the immediate weeks after refunds arrive. Households increase durable spending, pay down balances and withdraw more cash at that time. Research based on the Consumer Expenditure Survey also shows that liquidity constrained households tend to increase spending around the receipt of refunds.

For entertainment operators, this means two distinct pockets of opportunity. Early January often feels cautious and discount-focused as households reset after holiday spending. As refunds begin arriving in mid-February and into March, there is measurable household reprieve and willingness to spend more freely on experiences, parties and group outings. Get those deals ready and your marketing message prepped!

More Workers, More Constraints: The Trend to Multiple Jobs

Economists and labor data show that the share of employed workers with multiple jobs rose steadily in the years following the pandemic and remains above pre-Covid levels. Federal labor statistics show the multiple jobholder share was 10+% higher than pre-Covid, which is the highest percent in almost three decades.

This matters because multiple jobholding is a real indicator of household cash flow pressure and time scarcity. When budgets are tight, time is also tight. Guests trade off entertainment decisions with work hours, errands and family needs. This reflects a pattern many operators notice: high traffic at certain times of day and group gatherings on predictable weekends, with more cautious spending on weekdays.

Black Friday Psychology: Deal Driven Timing that Continues into Q1

Black Friday and Cyber Monday remain powerful anchors of consumer spending behavior. Retail analysis shows online holiday spending set new records in late 2025, with flexible payment options like Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) contributing to increased online activity. Adobe Analytics reported that BNPL accounted for nearly $20 billion in online spending during the 2025 holiday season, up almost 10% year over year.

Surveys from consumer analytics firms also describe a post-holiday discretionary pullback. Shoppers who front-loaded purchases into deeply discounted holiday windows often moderate spending early in Q1. This psychological hangover shows up for operators as a smaller spend with families having more value sensitivity in January.
Impulse Spending and Household Budgets

Impulse buying is widespread and not trivial for household budgets. A 2024-2025 survey estimate placed average consumer impulse spending at around $3,381 annually. When budgets leak early in the month due to unplanned purchases, there is less room later for out-of-home entertainment. This reinforces the need for value messaging and planned spending options rather than relying solely on impulse triggers.

BNPL Trends in 2025 & Consumer Behavior

Buy Now Pay Later has become a significant payment option that clearly influences when and how people spend. Estimates from mid 2025 suggest that approximately 91.5 million Americans will use BNPL, up from around 86.5 million users in 2024, indicating ongoing growth in adoption.

BNPL usage also grew in terms of volume and monthly spending. Reports indicate that this type of monthly spending increased by about 21% from June 2024 to June 2025. Over one in four Americans say they are more likely to buy when a pay later option is offered.

Another survey found that nearly 43% of consumers say BNPL played a role in covering holiday expenses in 2025, up sharply from a similar survey two years earlier.

Estimates from trend trackers also project that roughly 49% of American consumers will have used BNPL services in 2025. That is a significant share of households compared to traditional credit options.

This broad adoption has real effects on budgets. BNPL behaves like a short-term installment loan. For example, they can be structured as four payments over six weeks with little or no interest. That makes it feel similar in structure to a car loan, where consumers commit future cash flow to pay for an experience they enjoy today. Because households commit future money, this can pressure cash availability in the weeks after purchases.

About 41% of BNPL users report making late payments on these plans, a share that has increased year over year and suggests strain on household budgets.

These payment patterns make timing important for operators. BNPL can enhance conversions in Q1 by lowering upfront cost barriers. But because this effectively commits future dollars, it can also suppress discretionary spending in weeks when payments are due. Keep an eye on March.

Calendar Catalysts in Q1

The first quarter of the year includes reliable calendar opportunities that help operators drive traffic and revenue.

Martin Luther King Day and Presidents’ Day often create family weekend blocks. Valentine’s Day provides a mid-February social occasion that goes beyond couples into group and teen outings. And the Super Bowl weekend remains an opportunity for watch parties, group bookings and extended dwell time in your center.

Q1 isn’t just about tax refunds, side job work schedules and BNPL commitments, Q1 is also your runway to the next wave of traffic. When you align promotions, messaging, and operational planning with measurable consumer behaviors and future events, your first quarter becomes a launchpad into a strong Q2.

Here is an example of a value-based program an operator used at year end. These types of clever programs are helpful to drive revenue and frequency, and it’s clear and easy to digest.

Justin Ripp, Shenaniganz: “We believe the average consumer is feeling real pressure. Prices across the board are up, so our focus has been on delivering clear value rather than asking guests to stretch further.

“During winter break, we cut our early morning play pass pricing by roughly 50%, with a deeper incentive for the first group of guests each day.

“The result was significant. Total play pass revenue increased by more than 200% year over year, while total passes sold grew by nearly 500%. Regular pass pricing was reduced by just under 50%, and early bird pricing was reduced by about 50%, which drove strong participation and earlier arrivals.

“Overall, winter break traffic was materially healthier, and we believe the value offered on play passes encouraged additional spend in both the arcade and the restaurant. An added benefit was a noticeable shift in visitation into earlier dayparts that are typically underutilized, helping balance demand and improve the guest experience throughout the day.”

Operators who think ahead can capture momentum. Spending time reading this article and planning for Q2 is time well spent.

Nick DiMatteo is the Vice President of Operations and Business Development at Pinnacle Entertainment Group. He brings over 25 years of experience in food and beverage, arcade, route and inline entertainment, with a background in multi-unit operations and national-level strategy. Today, he works with entertainment providers to improve performance through operations, P&L and team development. Based in Texas, Nick is also an active mentor and the proud father of five. Visit www.grouppinnacle.com for more information or contact Nick by emailing [email protected].