At the beginning of each New Year, ABC's Nightline with Ted Koppel has the same four people on every year, making predictions about what will occur in the upcoming year. They are usually wrong. Who could have predicted the events of the prior year? One thing that is certain: Major changes will occur in our world in the next 12 months. I'm always fascinated knowing that I have no idea what will happen in the next 12 months, but also knowing that a year from now the events that occurred will have been fascinating and major. How's that for gibberish? Here are my serious and not-so-serious predictions for our industry for 2002.
A distributor will go broke. Another major manufacturer will depart the coin-operated industry. A select few operators will capitalize on the online opportunities and make bundles of money. A high-profile operator will be bought, sold, or go out of business. I will lose 20 pounds by June by eliminating "bloomin' onions" from my diet. Frank Seninsky will change his mind on the proper way to operate, and go back and revise all 25,000 articles he has ever written. Jerry Monday will start proselytizing the contributions of distribution in the industry, now that he's running one again. Ken Anderson will change jobs sometime in 2002. Owners of Midway will pine about how they miss the coin-operated industry as Midway stock continues to climb, now that they don't have coin-op dragging them down. Some operators will declare the "online phenomenon" a fad. Despite the fact that the entire industry wants a consolidation of associations and trade shows, and has for 10 years, there will still be an AMOA, ASI and Fun Expo in 2002. Eighty percent of industry members will visit Las Vegas at least one time this year. Forty percent of these industry members will complain about the condition of the Las Vegas Hilton hotel rooms. Jack Rodios of Casbox online magazine, will make someone mad due to something he writes. The Kansas Jayhawks will remain the No. 1 ranked college basketball team in the nation through the winter only to lose to St. Mary's of the Plains in round one of the NCAA tournament. How's that for a start? Just as the Nightline panelists are usually wrong, I suspect I am too, except for the 20 pounds
I had a really exciting article to present to you this month, but it got derailed. I've run into this before. The subject, whose business story is fascinating to me and would be to others, declined to be interviewed. Their business model is controversial to some, yet very successful, and my prospect decided not to discuss it publicly. I fully understand and respect his reasoning, although I don't subscribe to the theory. My entire career has been in print. My AMOA years, our business successes and struggles, and the sale of our business have all been well-documented. More than that, faithful readers of this column experienced my first marriage, my wonderful second marriage 10 years later, and the birth of my two children. I've never regretted one word I've written. It always comes back to me tenfold in ways I would never have imagined.
I know that many in the industry want to stay very private. Certainly there are proprietary programs and policies that give companies their competitive advantage that shouldn't be shared. Profitability is number one. Industry contribution and overall health is right up there, though. I wish more companies who have affected major changes in the industry could share their successes with others without jeopardizing their business. There are a lot of great stories out there to be told!
Traveling in the post-Sept. 11 era has been a real adjustment for us all. Denver International had some of the worst screening delay problems in the country. I've waited in line two to three hours at times to get through screening this fall in Denver. Here's a pointer. Travel on Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday. These are clearly the lightest travel days. Try at all costs to avoid departing anywhere Monday mornings or Friday afternoons. I initially tried to leave my computer at home, but it made work too difficult. I don't pack any differently, except lighter whenever possible. Nail clippers without the nail file are acceptable. I swear to you that there is a lady at every screening counter where all she does is break off the small file sections of nail clipper sets. With the file intact, they will be confiscated. However, you are free to carry your pointed razor-sharp metal mechanical pencil on board; that is a weapon if I've ever seen one. Go figure. It's true that airline travel is down 10 to 15%, but they canceled 20% of their flights. Most of those canceled appear to be the late night flights. I used to travel at night to avoid crowds, departing around 8 or 9PM, but most of those flights are the ones that were canceled. If you cancel 20% of the flights, but traffic only goes down 15%, isn't that a net gain for the airlines? I'm still trying to figure that one out. I've never seen planes so full as I have since September. Here's another one for you: They say they have random screening at the gates? I have noticed that there is nothing random about it in most cases. I was boarding a plane that had close to a dozen 20-something Middle Eastern male passengers preparing to board. To a person, they pulled every one of them out of line and put them through extensive screening. I was very glad, and quite surprised they would be so blatant about it. They were the only passengers that I saw pulled for screening.
One last travel thought. I always pull up the Internet to track fares. I am amazed how quick airfares can change. The bottom line: If you find a fare, and they are cheaper on the Internet, book it now. It used to be that they didn't change fares more than once a day, but they're scrambling, changing them in many cases multiple times per day. If you find it, book it.
I sincerely wish that each of you will enjoy prosperity in the upcoming
year. In this time of uncertainty, I wish you business success, good health,
and may you play more rounds of golf than you did in 2001. I predict many
of you will have a great year in 2002.